- Illinois has the easiest projected schedule, returning a strong team from 2024 and facing opponents with an average SP+ rating similar to the 61st-best team in the country.
- Wisconsin has the toughest schedule, facing a gauntlet of highly-rated conference opponents and a non-conference matchup against powerhouse Alabama.
- Other teams with challenging schedules include Purdue, Rutgers, and Ohio State, who all face multiple opponents ranked in the top 40 by SP+.
- The schedule strength analysis suggests potential contenders and highlights teams likely facing an uphill battle in the 2025 Big Ten season.
The results of the 2024 Big Ten football season are best judged while considering the context of each team's schedule, both conference and overall.
For example, Indiana entered the year with our 17th-ranked overall schedule. It went 11-1 in the regular season and made the College Football Playoff. While the team took a gigantic step forward in Year 1 under coach Curt Cignetti, it also benefited from an easy path, at least by Big Ten standards.
A similar lens can be applied to USC's season. The Trojans entered with our toughest schedule with games against LSU, Notre Dame, Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State, Washington and Nebraska. They went 6-6 against that challenging slate and 4-5 in Big Ten play. It's reasonable to say the team was much better than its record showed.
So, entering 2025, which teams fit those criteria, whether with an especially easy or challenging schedule?
Using the same method as last offseason, we've broken down every schedule in the Big Ten Conference and ranked them by difficulty.
The equation used to compare each slate is simple. First, we take each team’s SP+ ratingto find a numerical value for every game. The higher that number, the tougher the matchup. We then add every opponent’s SP+ rating together to find a total opponent score. That large number is divided by the number 12 (total games) to find the average opponent score — a number that can then be compared to the SP+ leaderboard to find, on average, what a team will face each week.
(Note: Home and away is not factored into the model. Also, Football Championship Subdivision opponents are not listed in SP+. Every FCS opponent was assessed a "minus-15” rating, akin to the No. 118 team in the Football Bowl Subdivision)
With that, here is an in-depth look at the Big Ten's strength of schedule ranking entering the 2025 season:
18. Illinois Fighting Illini
Total Opponent Score: 9.9
Average Opponent Score:0.82 (akin to the 61st-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score:34.8 (the easiest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
- USC (9.7)
- Purdue (-14.6)
- Ohio State (28.0)
- Washington (7.3)
- Rutgers (4.6)
- Maryland (-0.2)
- Wisconsin (6.1)
- Northwestern (-6.1)
Nonconference Schedule:
- Western Illinois (FCS -15)
- Duke (6.5)
- Western Michigan (-16.4)
Illinois returns nearly its entire team from 2024 -- one that won 10 games, including a bowl triumph over South Carolina. The stars could align for another 10-win season, this time ending in a College Football Playoff appearance.
17. Michigan Wolverines
Total Opponent Score: 11.9
Average Opponent Score:0.99 (akin to the 60th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score:36.2 (second-easiest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
- Nebraska (8.2)
- Wisconsin (6.1)
- USC (9.7)
- Washington (7.3)
- Michigan State (-2.2)
- Purdue (-14.6)
- Northwestern (-6.1)
- Maryland (-0.2)
- Ohio State (28.0)
Nonconference Schedule:
- New Mexico (-21.5)
- Oklahoma (13.1)
- Central Michigan (-15.9)
Sherrone Moore faces a golden opportunity in Year 2 at the helm. The team finished 2024 on a strong note, defeating Ohio State and Alabama to finish 8-5. It welcomes the No. 1 overall class of 2025 recruit Bryce Underwood, who will have a chance to win the starting quarterback job on Day 1. The Wolverines should be a popular college football playoff pick entering the year.
Get more (Michigan) news, analysis and opinions onWolverines Wire
16. Indiana Hoosiers
Total Opponent Score: 16.9
Average Opponent Score:1.40 (akin to the 56th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score:59.9 (fifth-easiest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
- Illinois (11.2)
- Iowa (12.5)
- Oregon (22.6)
- Michigan State (-2.2)
- UCLA (-0.8)
- Maryland (-0.2)
- Penn State (25.3)
- Wisconsin (6.1)
- Purdue (-14.6)
Nonconference Schedule:
- Old Dominion (-8.3)
- Kennesaw State (-19.7)
- Indiana State (-15 FCS)
After coasting through an easy schedule in 2024, Indiana is rewarded with another manageable slate. Away games against Oregon and Penn State will be a challenge. But a path exists to another nine-win season.
15. Maryland Terrapins
Total Opponent Score: 22.3
Average Opponent Score:1.85 (akin to the 54th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score:64.1 (seventh-easiest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
- Wisconsin (6.1)
- Washington (7.3)
- Nebraska (8.2)
- UCLA (-0.8)
- Indiana (12.0)
- Rutgers (4.6)
- Illinois (11.2)
- Michigan (17.7)
- Michigan State (-2.2)
Nonconference Schedule:
- Florida Atlantic (-12.7)
- Northern Illinois (-14.1)
- Towson (FCS -15)
2025 could be a do-or-die year for Mike Locksley. The team went 4-8 in 2024, and Maryland is poised to hire a new athletic director. Maryland has an extremely manageable slate, avoiding Oregon, Penn State and Ohio State. The question is, are the Terrapins good enough to take advantage?
14. Penn State Nittany Lions
Total Opponent Score: 28.2
Average Opponent Score:2.35 (akin to the 53rd-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score:78.8 (ninth-toughest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
- Oregon (22.6)
- UCLA (-0.8)
- Northwestern (-6.1)
- Iowa (12.5)
- Ohio State (28.0)
- Indiana (12.0)
- Michigan State (-2.2)
- Nebraska (8.2)
- Rutgers (4.6)
Nonconference Schedule:
- Nevada (-20.4)
- Florida International (-15.2)
- Villanova (FCS -15)
Penn State's expectation will be another deep playoff run, so its regular-season schedule may not fully matter. The team has big games against Oregon and Ohio State. A 1-1 split could open the door for an 11-1 season and Big Ten title trip.
Get more (Penn State) news, analysis and opinions onNittany Lions Wire
13. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Total Opponent Score: 31.6
Average Opponent Score:2.63 (akin to the 53rd-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score:63.8 (sixth-easiest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
- Michigan (17.7)
- Michigan State (-2.2)
- Maryland (-0.2)
- Minnesota (7.9)
- Northwestern (-6.1)
- USC (9.7)
- UCLA (-0.8)
- Penn State (25.3)
- Iowa (12.5)
Nonconference Schedule:
- Cincinnati (1.7)
- Akron (-18.9)
- Houston Christian (FCS -15)
Nebraska was on a roll against its light 2024 schedule, starting 5-1. While the team lost five of its last six, its bowl win over Boston College clinched the program's first winning season since 2016. The Cornhuskers again have a manageable slate in 2025. An improved team could lead to an eight- or nine-win breakout.
Get more (Nebraska) news, analysis and opinions onCornhuskers Wire
12. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Total Opponent Score: 37.4
Average Opponent Score:3.11 (akin to the 51st-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score:59.1 (fourth-easiest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
- Rutgers (4.6)
- Ohio State (28.0)
- Purdue (-14.6)
- Nebraska (8.2)
- Iowa (12.5)
- Michigan State (-2.2)
- Oregon (22.6)
- Northwestern (-6.1)
- Wisconsin (6.1)
Nonconference Schedule:
- Buffalo (-7.9)
- Northwestern State (FCS -15)
- Cal (1.2)
Minnesota plays both Ohio State and Oregon, but the rest of its conference schedule isn't a significant challenge. Games against Nebraska, Iowa and Wisconsin will decide whether the season becomes a success.
11. Washington Huskies
Total Opponent Score: 44.7
Average Opponent Score:3.72 (akin to the 49th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score:74.6 (ninth-easiest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
- Ohio State (28.0)
- Maryland (-0.2)
- Rutgers (4.6)
- Michigan (17.7)
- Illinois (11.2)
- Wisconsin (6.1)
- Purdue (-14.6)
- UCLA (-0.8)
- Oregon (22.6)
Nonconference Schedule:
- Colorado State (-9.5)
- UC Davis (FCS -15)
- Washington State (-5.4)
Washington's schedule is perfectly average by Big Ten standards. It plays Michigan, Ohio State and Oregon, then balances those tough matchups with games against Purdue, Maryland and UCLA. Bowl eligibility should be the expectation for the Huskies in Jedd Fisch's second season.
Get more (Washington) news, analysis and opinions onHuskies Wire
10. USC Trojans
Total Opponent Score: 52.6
Average Opponent Score:4.38 (akin to the 46th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score:48.5 (third-easiest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
- Purdue (-14.6)
- Michigan State (-2.2)
- Illinois (11.2)
- Michigan (17.7)
- Nebraska (8.2)
- Northwestern (-6.1)
- Iowa (12.5)
- Oregon (22.6)
- UCLA (-0.8)
Nonconference Schedule:
- Missouri State (FCS -15)
- Georgia Southern (-4.3)
- Notre Dame (23.4)
USC should be a sleeper pick to win the Big Ten in 2025, as, unlike last season, it has one of the easiest schedules in the conference. The team's home game against Michigan and a trip to Oregon may decide if it contends for the title game. That Notre Dame game could be the determining factor for a potential playoff berth.
Get more (USC) news, analysis and opinions onTrojans Wire
9. Michigan State Spartans
Total Opponent Score: 60.6
Average Opponent Score:5.05 (akin to the 42nd-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score:92.3 (fifth-toughest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
- USC (9.7)
- Nebraska (8.2)
- UCLA (-0.8)
- Indiana (12.0)
- Michigan (17.7)
- Minnesota (7.9)
- Penn State (25.3)
- Iowa (12.5)
- Maryland (-0.2)
Nonconference Schedule:
- Western Michigan (-16.4)
- Boston College (-0.3)
- Youngstown State (FCS -15)
Michigan State fans will expect a resurgent second season under Jonathan Smith. That expectation may be a bit lofty: The team projects to be underdogs in 10 of its 12 games.
Get more (Michigan State) news, analysis and opinions onSpartans Wire
8. Oregon Ducks
Total Opponent Score: 61.0
Average Opponent Score:5.08 (akin to the 41st-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score:79.3 (eighth-toughest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
- Northwestern (-6.1)
- Penn State (25.3)
- Indiana (12.0)
- Rutgers (4.6)
- Wisconsin (6.1)
- Iowa (12.5)
- Minnesota (7.9)
- USC (9.7)
- Washington (7.3)
Nonconference Schedule:
- Montana State (FCS -15)
- Oklahoma State (-2.0)
- Oregon State (-1.3)
Oregon has a middle-of-the-road schedule in 2025. The team's biggest issue will be replacing all the production it lost to the NFL after 2024. It should again be quite good, but likely not good enough to repeat as conference champion.
Get more (Oregon) news, analysis and opinions onDucks Wire
7. Northwestern Wildcats
Total Opponent Score: 61.2
Average Opponent Score:5.1 (akin to the 41st-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score:87.2 (sixth-toughest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
- Oregon (22.6)
- UCLA (-0.8)
- Penn State (25.3)
- Purdue (-14.6)
- Nebraska (8.2)
- USC (9.7)
- Michigan (17.7)
- Minnesota (7.9)
- Illinois (11.2)
Nonconference Schedule:
- Tulane (3.4)
- Western Illinois (FCS -15)
- UL-Monroe (-14.4)
Northwestern would do extremely well to reach a bowl game against this schedule. This year should be important for David Braun and his program. A further regression from 2023's surprising debut year could raise questions
6. Iowa Hawkeyes
Total Opponent Score: 65.1
Average Opponent Score:5.42 (akin to the 42nd-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score:94.2 (third-toughest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
- Rutgers (4.6)
- Indiana (12.0)
- Wisconsin (6.1)
- Penn State (25.3)
- Minnesota (7.9)
- Oregon (22.6)
- USC (9.7)
- Michigan State (-2.2)
- Nebraska (8.2)
Nonconference Schedule:
- Albany (FCS -15)
- Iowa State (9.9)
- UMass (-24.0)
Iowa's standing entering 2025 is familiar. The team's defense should be among the best in the sport. Expectations are high for the offense with transfer QB Mark Gronowski, though that side of the football is still a big unknown. The schedule seems to not matter: Iowa will likely go 8-4.
Get more (Iowa) news, analysis and opinions onHawkeyes Wire
5. UCLA Bruins
Total Opponent Score: 68.9
Average Opponent Score:5.74 (akin to the 41st-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score:82 (seventh-toughest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
- Northwestern (-6.1)
- Penn State (25.3)
- Michigan State (-2.2)
- Maryland (-0.2)
- Indiana (12.0)
- Nebraska (8.2)
- Ohio State (28.0)
- Washington (7.3)
- USC (9.7)
Nonconference Schedule:
- Utah (9.5)
- UNLV (-1.1)
- New Mexico (-21.5)
DeShaun Foster's team faced one of the toughest schedules in the sport in 2024. This slate is a bit of a relief, though it is still challenging enough to make bowl eligibility a real challenge.
Get more (UCLA) news, analysis and opinions onUCLA Wire
4. Ohio State Buckeyes
Total Opponent Score: 69.8
Average Opponent Score:5.81 (akin to the 41st-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score:64.7 (eighth-easiest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
- Washington (7.3)
- Minnesota (7.9)
- Illinois (11.2)
- Wisconsin (6.1)
- Penn State (25.3)
- Purdue (-14.6)
- UCLA (-0.8)
- Rutgers (4.6)
- Michigan (17.7)
Nonconference Schedule:
- Texas (21.9)
- Grambling State (FCS -15)
- Ohio (-1.8)
Ohio State's place on this list shouldn't matter much. It will be expected to win the Big Ten (something it hasn't done since 2019) and make another deep run in the playoff. That home opener against Texas should be one of the games of the year.
Get more (Ohio State) news, analysis and opinions onBuckeyes Wire
3. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Total Opponent Score: 74.2
Average Opponent Score:6.18 (akin to the 41st-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score:100 (second-toughest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
- Iowa (12.5)
- Minnesota (7.9)
- Washington (7.3)
- Oregon (22.6)
- Purdue (-14.6)
- Illinois (11.2)
- Maryland (-0.2)
- Ohio State (28.0)
- Penn State (25.3)
Nonconference:
- Ohio (-1.8)
- Miami OH (-9.0)
- Norfolk State (FCS -15)
Rutgers gained a multiyear run of easy schedules, which allowed the team to make consecutive bowl games for the first time in a decade. That situation changes entering 2025. The Scarlet Knights face Penn State, Ohio State and Oregon. Purdue is the only conference game that seems like a clear win.
2. Purdue Boilermakers
Total Opponent Score: 78.4
Average Opponent Score:6.53 (akin to the 39th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score:92.3 (fourth-toughest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
- USC (9.7)
- Illinois (11.2)
- Minnesota (7.9)
- Northwestern (-6.1)
- Rutgers (4.6)
- Michigan (17.7)
- Ohio State (28.0)
- Washington (7.3)
- Indiana (12.0)
Nonconference Schedule:
- Ball State (-22.3)
- Southern ILL (FCS -15)
- Notre Dame (23.4)
Not only is new coach Barry Odom tasked with building an entire roster in just a few months, his team faces one of the toughest schedules in the sport. Anything above two wins should be considered a major victory.
1. Wisconsin Badgers
Total Opponent Score: 121.1
Average Opponent Score:10.1 (akin to the 27th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score:119 (first, the toughest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
- Maryland (-0.2)
- Michigan (17.7)
- Iowa (12.5)
- Ohio State (28.0)
- Oregon (22.6)
- Washington (7.3)
- Indiana (12.0)
- Illinois (11.2)
- Minnesota (7.9)
Nonconference Schedule:
- Miami OH (-9.0)
- Middle Tennessee (FCS -15)
- Alabama (26.1)
Wisconsin's 2025 schedule has been well-documented. It is the toughest in the conference and one of the toughest in the sport. The Badgers would do extremely well to return to bowl eligibility.
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